Mix low inflation, government largess, easy money, pent-up consumer demand, low business investment, and vast amounts of hoarded cash… and what do you get?
Economic news outlets such as Kiplinger may highlight higher inflation in 2021, but the picture is mixed when you look at specific sectors. For example, used car prices have dropped after spiking early in the pandemic. Air fares are on a downward trend so far in 2021. Gasoline surged in February but overall consumer prices are up only 1.7% vs. a year ago. Overall, Kiplinger foresees core inflation (excluding volatile food and energy sectors) constrained at about 2% in 2021—a level unlikely to cause the Federal Reserve to change their accommodative stance and raise interest rates.
The Fed duly published its latest outlook on 3-17-2021 saying “The central bank now expects real gross domestic product to grow 6.5% in 2021, compared with its 4.2% forecast from its December meeting.” And, according to CNBC, “The Federal Reserve on Wednesday dialed up its economic growth expectations but signaled that there are no expected interest rate hikes for the next two years.”
For example, the Brookings Institute attributes much of this improvement to the “Biden Bump” saying, “We estimate that the package [will] boost economic activity, as measured by the level of real gross domestic product (GDP), by about 4 percent at the end of 2021 and 2 percent at the end of 2022, relative to a projection that assumes no additional fiscal support.”
The Economist brings an interesting portrait of pent-up consumer demand to light in its March 13th issue:
“The Economist has gathered data on personal saving […] for 21 rich countries. Had the pandemic not happened, households would probably have stashed away $3trn in the first nine months of 2020. In fact, they saved $6trn. That implies “excess saving” of about $3trn—a tenth of annual consumption in those countries.”
“Households do not usually save on such a scale during recessions. […] But governments in the rich world have spent 5% of their combine GDP” on various means of stimulating the economy including direct to taxpayer payouts and increased unemployment support.”
“What will consumers do with the cash? If they were to spend it all in one go, rich-world GDP growth would probably exceed 10% in 2021.”
Businesses, too, have tended to spend less on capital investment over the last year as part of a longer term trend away from capital-intensive manufacturing but also as a means of conserving cash in uncertain times.
Granted, there are obstacles such as the increasing prevalence of the Covid-19 variants, upticks in infections in Europe and in parts of the US (particularly those who have recently loosened restrictions on public gatherings, etc.). But the fact that the US has already inoculated 100 million people in just 60 days (40 days early vs. the incoming President’s stated timetable) also gives us hope that the pandemic may indeed be in the rear view mirror by the second half of the year.
You betcha!
That is one of the many reasons we say “2021 promises to be a hot market for executives.”
Through mid-March we have already helped 40 executives land their dream jobs with a strong emphasis on the manufacturing, technology, financial services, retail (including e-commerce) sectors, but also a smattering of government, non-profit and many other sectors, too.
Our clients are insulated from the economic cycle in any case. Fully 75% of them land through jobs that were never published in the first place. They benefit from less competition and higher compensation. We’ve invested 30 years in mapping the routes into this unpublished executive job market so you don’t have to. Of course we also serve the recruiter and published markets as well where another 25% of our clients land.
Put a six-member Barrett Group client team to work for your career change program and you too can participate in the Return of the Roaring Twenties. Let’s talk!
Peter Irish
CEO
The Barrett Group
Read the next Chairman’s Blog: We’ve got your lucky number: 50-8-4-9
CareerChange.com powered by THE BARRETT GROUP
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
__cfduid | 1 month | The cookie is used by cdn services like CloudFare to identify individual clients behind a shared IP address and apply security settings on a per-client basis. It does not correspond to any user ID in the web application and does not store any personally identifiable information. |
cookielawinfo-checbox-analytics | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". |
cookielawinfo-checbox-functional | 11 months | The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional". |
cookielawinfo-checbox-others | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement | 1 year | The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Advertisement". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". |
viewed_cookie_policy | 11 months | The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
bcookie | 2 years | This cookie is set by linkedIn. The purpose of the cookie is to enable LinkedIn functionalities on the page. |
lang | session | This cookie is used to store the language preferences of a user to serve up content in that stored language the next time user visit the website. |
lidc | 1 day | This cookie is set by LinkedIn and used for routing. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
YSC | session | This cookies is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_ga | 2 years | This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to calculate visitor, session, campaign data and keep track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookies store information anonymously and assign a randomly generated number to identify unique visitors. |
_gcl_au | 3 months | This cookie is used by Google Analytics to understand user interaction with the website. |
_gid | 1 day | This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to store information of how visitors use a website and helps in creating an analytics report of how the wbsite is doing. The data collected including the number visitors, the source where they have come from, and the pages viisted in an anonymous form. |
_uetsid | 1 day | This cookies are used to collect analytical information about how visitors use the website. This information is used to compile report and improve site. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_fbp | 3 months | This cookie is set by Facebook to deliver advertisement when they are on Facebook or a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising after visiting this website. |
bscookie | 2 years | This cookie is a browser ID cookie set by Linked share Buttons and ad tags. |
fr | 3 months | The cookie is set by Facebook to show relevant advertisments to the users and measure and improve the advertisements. The cookie also tracks the behavior of the user across the web on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin. |
IDE | 1 year 24 days | Used by Google DoubleClick and stores information about how the user uses the website and any other advertisement before visiting the website. This is used to present users with ads that are relevant to them according to the user profile. |
MUID | 1 year 24 days | Used by Microsoft as a unique identifier. The cookie is set by embedded Microsoft scripts. The purpose of this cookie is to synchronize the ID across many different Microsoft domains to enable user tracking. |
personalization_id | 2 years | This cookie is set by twitter.com. It is used integrate the sharing features of this social media. It also stores information about how the user uses the website for tracking and targeting. |
test_cookie | 15 minutes | This cookie is set by doubleclick.net. The purpose of the cookie is to determine if the user's browser supports cookies. |
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE | 5 months 27 days | This cookie is set by Youtube. Used to track the information of the embedded YouTube videos on a website. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_gat_gtag_UA_1327882_1 | 1 minute | No description |
_gat_gtag_UA_1327882_6 | 1 minute | No description |
_gat_UA-1327882-1 | 1 minute | No description |
_uetvid | 16 days 6 hours | No description |
AnalyticsSyncHistory | 1 month | No description |
asp_transient_id | session | No description |
CONSENT | 16 years 10 months 3 days 7 hours | No description |
UserMatchHistory | 1 month | Linkedin - Used to track visitors on multiple websites, in order to present relevant advertisement based on the visitor's preferences. |
X-Mapping-iliahmoa | No description |