The Reluctant Recovery
Clearly, this is not the vertical lift-off politicians were hoping for. In fact, the recovery, if there is one, is more like a patchwork quilt with certain areas and industries currently performing better while others suffer.
Perhaps you should not wait for the world to catch up and you should instead lay plans for your own personal economic recovery—let’s find out.
Fortune has a great map of the United States for example, that illustrates the unemployment rates per state with Kentucky (4.3%) and Utah (5.1%) showing V-shaped recovery in unemployment numbers while Massachusetts has the highest unemployment at 17.4%. Per the same article, the Conference Board’s most recent survey of CEOs shows only 9% predicting a rapid (V-shaped) recovery.
Bloomberg runs a Recovery Tracker that focuses more on industries (in the US) and economic indicators. Active oil rigs show the worst impacts right now followed perhaps by same-store (retail) sales, while restaurant bookings and airline passengers traffic show a slight improvement since the worst ratings in the depths of Q2.
Having walked back its previous relatively robust predictions, the CBO has this to say about the recovery:
- CBO projects that if current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remain in place, the economy will grow rapidly during the third quarter of this year.
- Real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow at a 12.4 percent annual rate in the second half of 2020 and to recover to its prepandemic level by the middle of 2022.
- The unemployment rate is projected to peak at over 14 percent in the third quarter of this year and then to fall quickly as output increases in the second half of 2020 and throughout 2021.
On August 7th, the New York Federal Reserve reduced its forecast for Q3 GDP growth by two points to 14.6% citing weakness in non-farm payroll.
The Economist (August 1, 2020) reported that the German economy contracted by 10.1% in Q2 versus Q1—the biggest decline ever recorded. Industrially, the World Tourism Organization reported that worldwide there was a 56% decline in tourist arrivals (through May YOY), translating to a loss of revenue of about $320 billon.
Meanwhile, both in the US and Europe, governments continue to pump money into the economy at a rate of more than 10% of world GDP with more stimulus likely to come.
And the virus continues to claim victims, though a vaccine may be available earlier than previously predicted. Whether a vaccine will impart temporary or continuous immunity, however, remains a mystery.
In short, it seems that things are unlikely to go back to normal any time soon.
So waiting is probably not a good strategy.
At the Barrett Group (TBG) we have not been sitting on our hands. Since the beginning of April we have now helped more than 72 executive clients find jobs of their choice and the rate actually increased in July (the historical “low” season for executive hirings). Our Hiring Line website reports on all the particulars, including one executive who, following our negotiating advice, increased his package by $80,000.
There are certainly profound shifts in industrial demand as energy, aviation, hospitality, tourism, and some retail sectors implode and other businesses explode—particularly health care and technology—when demand increases dramatically.
We mine these opportunities by helping our clients to uncover them in the unpublished market (where about 75 % of our clients typically land) before they are ever made public.
Not surprisingly, health care has leapt to the top of the heap as far as hiring industries are concerned based on our clients’ experience, followed by technology, consulting, financial services, retail/wholesale, and on-line retail. The top 10 industries now constitute 74% of TBG client hirings since April (see the graphic for details).
We help executives to rethink their career history and reposition their experience so as to make it demonstrably transferable.
But we also look during the Targeting stage of our five-stage career change program at where the client will be most comfortable with respect to emotional and quality of life factors as well.
A six-member team supports each client as they move through the process, making our clients vastly more effective in their job searches than their competition.
So if you are unsure about your career prospects, if you have been laid off and need to change industries, if you would like to increase your compensation, or if you need more support after spending frustrating months spinning your wheels in a market you do not understand, consider getting professional career management advice from the thirty-year industry veteran who is helping executives right now to implement their own personal economic recoveries, in spite of the the pandemic.
Contact TBG today and start your own personal economic recovery.
The Barrett Group